Climate Change and Conflict in Karamoja and the Cattle Corridor of Uganda

Background of the USAID/CMM Study During 2007-2009, a series of well-publicized studies appeared that projected the likelihood of strong linkages between climate change and an increase in conflict in vulnerable areas of the developing world (e.g., CNA Corporation 2007, CSIS and CNAS 2008, SIDA 2008, UN 2009).

Many of the projected scenarios were alarming in their implications. The findings of the Center for a New American Security were typical of many other studies:

"…the United States can expect that climate change will exacerbate already existing North-South tensions, dramatically increase global migration both inside and between nations, lead to increasingly serious public health problems, heighten interstate tension and possibly conflict over resources, collapse agricultural markets and global fisheries, challenge the institutions of global governance, cause potentially destabilizing domestic political and social repercussions, and spur unpredictable shifts in the global balance of power."

USAID/CMM asked FESS to review the state of knowledge about this issue-area. In its paper on "Climate Change, Adaptation, and Conflict," published by USAID/CMM in October 2009, FESS found that upon closer examination, "the analysis and discussion of the climate-conflict relationship to date is very largely, conceptual, schematic, and deductive," and warned of the potential for "costly initiatives" that "run ahead of firm evidence that they are meeting their stated goals." Noting the multidimensional origins of conflict, the paper recommended "more granularity in the understanding of the climate-conflict relationship in specific countries or regions."

USAID/CMM subsequently asked FESS to produce a case study on climate change and conflict in selected countries, with a view to producing findings relevant to Agency and Mission interests. The first of these was Uganda, focusing on Karamoja and the Cattle Corridor.

From June 26, 2010 to July 9, 2010, the two-person FESS research team conducted 52 interviews and met with more than 110 persons from local communities, civil society organizations, local and national government, elected officials, and international organizations. A number of these discussions resulted in dialogue that will continue over the next several months, including the exchange of additional data.

In addition to meetings in Kampala, these discussions and interviews took place in the following districts and locations:

• Kotido (Kotido Town, Nakapelimoru)
• Luwero (Luwero Town)
• Nakaseke (Nakaseke Town)
• Nakasongola (Kisweramainda village, Kalongo sub-county; Mayirikiti village, Kalongo sub-county; Kirowooza village, Kakooge sub-county; Kakonde village, Nabiswera sub-county; and Wabinyonyi sub-county)